الأربعاء، 23 مارس 2011

majority of Libyans would recognise

This folly astounds me in so many ways. Small wonder that the Libyan regime brands this a 'Crusader invasion', when we read (#84) that it is about "God given rights". Whose God? Not mine and not one that the majority of Libyans would recognise.

How can it be acceptable for the coalition to cause civilian casualties in preventing the regime from causing them? Anyone with a penny of sense knows that you cannot create a 'no fly zone', without suppressing the anti-aircraft capability of your opponent. The idea that cruise missiles launched from a submarine are precision munitions, is a fallacy and people, yes women and children will die when those assets are targeted.

Former Admiral Jack Keane suggests arming the rebel opposition, that worked awfully well when it was tried in the Afghan-Soviet conflict. There is no exit strategy in place, unless you admit that it is regime change, the 'elephant in the room'. Look at the safe and stable environment that regime change created in Iraq 8 years ago. If President Obama meant what he said when he promised no troops on the ground, there is little chance of hitting Gaddafi, so I suspect CIA and Special Forces are present. I hope they don't pick the wrong bunker again (Baghdad 2003).

It is hard to see how this war can come to an early end, or make a nett saving of lives. Libyas borders are not sealed and to the south east lies Sudan, no friend to the west and a haven for Al-Quaeda. Gaddafi has hit his enemies before by exporting weapons to terrorist groups, how many Lockerbies caused by shoulder launched SAMs would it take, before some of the righteous posters came to regret this war?

Lastly Mr Cameron, tens of thousands of nurses, policemen and council workers are being made redundant in the UK, because of the burden of public debt. If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on saving those jobs, or pouring money into munitions and their delivery systems for Libya, which would your people vote for. Democracy at home or democracy in a feudal African state? I know which one gets my vote.
95.
It seems reasonable to target the prevention of all projectiles flying towards civilians and reinstatement of basic supplies to civilians as a humane endpoint (event driven). I guess that the problem herein is that this passes the choice of when to end (time driven) to those originating flying projectiles or cutting off utility supplies.

"What is left unsaid is that presumably the man giving the orders to kill civilians is Col Gaddafi. Getting rid of him would protect civilians. QED." Is there a pragmatic carrot that can be offered to the regime?

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